Strategic Voting: How the Republican Primary is a game of Diplomacy
Usually the moves in a primary are pretty straightforward, and up until now they have been. A candidate debates a little and if they get no traction they drop out. If they make it to Iowa and New Hampshire then bad voter tallies further whittle the field.
That’s usually the only option – play or quit. Possibly endorse another candidate and hope your voters make a difference for them. This isn’t a typical year though, and the GOP frontrunner is so deplorable to the Republican machine that they are actively taking a role in working against Trump. The magic number is 1,237 for Trump. That’s how many delegates he needs to win the nomination, just like Diplomacy’s magic number is 18 Supply Centers. Both of those numbers are half the total, plus one. So who’s who in this game?
Let’s say Trump is Germany, and not for the reason that everyone else is associating him with Germany. Germany has access to a lot of SCs (delegates) and so far in this game the country has gobbled up the lion’s share and is on a clear trajectory toward winning.
To the south is Cruz, heading up Austria-Hungary. Some good play early on (not to mention a little backstabbing) has led to the second most SCs for Cruz. His Austria early on had a non-aggression pact with Germany, as is typical in Diplomacy, which afforded him time to gobble up his southern neighbor, Turkey-Carson. But now Cruz has run out of easy targets and is taking shots at his bigger neighbor to the north.
Of course, Jeb Bush is Russia in this game. Russia looked big and formidable at the very beginning, but it was too easy for everyone else to eat pieces off his empire, especially with such incompetent play.
“Come on, give me a break!”
Marco Rubio also seemed to have it all – donors, youth, the blessing of the establishment, so he would be France in this game. Who doesn’t love to play France? And yet he has made very little end roads, not able to push past Switzerland and into that fertile German soil.
To his north is England, Kasich country. What little territory he has is easily defensible. Germany has no navy to speak of, so those Kasich lands are out of reach.
Thus the non-Trump players of the game are at a crossroads – do we keep fighting over this territory and that Supply Center, or do we pull together and move as one for the time being? Maybe none of them can get 18 Supply Centers at this point, but they can try to stop Trump from getting them and then who knows? A draw is better than a loss in Diplomacy, and in the real world it can mean a brokered convention where in theory any of Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich can end up getting the nomination.
Whereas before everyone was battling everyone for every Supply Center, it appears that deals have been made. It’s in everyone’s best interest if Trump does not win Florida or Ohio, and Rubio’s campaign has encouraged his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. It’s the Diplomatic equivalent of France supporting England into Belgium.
Somewhat oddly, Kasich has not returned the favor and urged his supporters to vote Rubio in Florida. In Diplomacy, one side is often more desparate than the other and is willing to make lopsided deals. Counterintuitively, the weakest country often has the most options, as they have the least to lose so they may be the most cavalier. They also can fly under the radar and can be thrown bones since they are seen as not a viable threat.
Cruz for his part pulled out of Florida and Ohio and is focused entirely on Illinois and Missouri. It is all very convenient for everyone except Trump-Germany. Whereas his enemies were fractured before, they appear at least somewhat united now.
The early frontrunner in Diplomacy always has a target on their back. Perhaps the biggest mistake these candidates have made was to not unite earlier. Trump might have enough delegates to take the rest of the board by force, despite any actions his adversaries take.
So if Trump were a good Diplomacy player what would he do? When you find yourself in the #1 position and all targets are on you, I find it best to pull back a little, even give some ground. Let your opponents get greedy and squabble amongst themselves. As we’ve already seen with Kasich not supporting Rubio, any alliance in a winner take all game is shaky at best. Trump would be well served to let someone like Cruz appear to sieze the momentum, all the while steadily racking up delegates. A month down the line he could offer to split the win with Kasich, by way of offering him the VP slot. That’s a ticket that the GOP establishment just might be able to stomach.
So, what do you think ?